Bryan-College Station economic index reveals growth

Although the Bryan-College Station economic index remained relatively flat for 2011 as a whole, the index ended the year on a high note in December after fourth-quarter growth in most sectors.

The index grew for the fourth consecutive month, rising from 119.6 in November to 120.2 in December -- which also was up compared to the December 2010 index of 119.5.

The Bryan-College Station index is compiled by Karr Ingham, an Amarillo-based economist, for Commerce National Bank and The Eagle.

The index started in January 2000 with a baseline measure of 100 and reached its high in December 2008, at 127.4.

Looking ahead at what 2012 has in store for the local economy, Glen Davis, regional president of Commerce National Bank, said he's expecting the year to be similar to 2011 -- relatively flat with a few signs of volatility.

"I think you'll see the index itself have some ups and downs through 2012, but I still see us plodding along, if you will," he said. "Like I've said before, we lagged going into the recession and I firmly believe we'll lag coming out."

Airplane ticket sales was the only economic indicator that fell during the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the report, and it fell by just 1.5 percent.

The value of all construction experienced the most growth of the indicators, increasing nearly 241 percent from $38,852.959 in the last quarter of 2010 to $132,364,099 during the same period in 2011.

In Bryan, a $12.5 million permit was issued in December to build a new wastewater treatment facility, while in College Station new residence permits totaled $9 million for the month and a $5 million permit was issued for a new apartment complex.

Single housing permits grew notably as well, increasing from 111 issued for the fourth quarter of 2010 to 135 for the last quarter of 2011.

Existing home sales rose nearly 13 percent for the last three months of 2011 compared to the same quarter of 2010, while the average home price grew 2.2 percent, according to the report.

Retail spending showed modest growth, rising 1.5 percent quarter over quarter, and 0.2 percent annually when comparing 2011 to 2010.

Automobile sales were up about 10 percent when comparing 2011 to 2010, increasing from about $274 million to about $302 million, according to the report.

For the fourth quarter, auto sales increased 18.6 percent in 2011 compared to 2010.

The fact that the fourth quarter experienced gains in many economic sectors is encouraging, Davis said.

"But the question always is, is it sustainable?" he said.

Although national consumer confidence fell 6 percent from December to January, statewide the confidence index increased 14 percent from 78.1 in December to 88.9 in January, according to the Texas Comptroller's February economic outlook.

Estimated employment numbers for December 2011 indicate a 1.5 percent decrease in wage and salary jobs, with a net loss of 1,500 jobs compared to December 2010, according to the report.

For the year, 3,000 jobs were lost locally in the state government sector, Ingham's report notes.

Although a breakdown of jobs lost by government entities was not available, Davis said that because Texas A&M is the largest source of state jobs, it's likely the bulk were cut through the university.

On a positive note, he pointed out that there was an increase of 1.8 percent, or 1,100 positions, in the private job market for 2011.

"From my perspective, we're kind of seeing some life in the private sector and the business community," Davis said, adding that he noticed an increase in the amount of small business loans his bank has given lately.