Republican Bill Flores holds a 12 percent lead over incumbent Democrat Chet Edwards in the race to represent Brazos County in the U.S. House, according to an independent survey of likely voters.
The poll commissioned by The Hill newspaper in Washington, D.C., indicates Flores leads 52 percent to 40 percent. Seven percent of voters said they were undecided.
Pollsters reported conducting 404 phone interviews with likely voters between Oct. 19 and 21. The margin of error was listed as 4.9 percent.
Both candidates have released internal polls in recent months, but The Hill poll is the first independent look at the race. Flores' campaign said it shows that he's in strong shape with less than a week to go before Election Day.
"This independent poll confirms what we have seen for many months. The folks of this district are gravely concerned about the Obama/Pelosi agenda and they want a limited-government conservative to restore America's future for our children and grandchildren," said campaign manager Matt Mackowiak.
Flores has emphasized Edwards' links to President Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi during a time that the Democratic leadership is unpopular nationwide. Congressional District 17 is a staunchly conservative area that Edwards has been able to win in the past with a centrist message.
But The Hill poll shows independent voters favoring Flores 48 percent to 37 percent, and Edwards receiving the backing of only 9 percent of Republican voters.
Edwards campaign spokeswoman Megan Jacobs cast doubt on the results.
"Our internal polls show this race to be very close," she said.
The Hill poll was taken more than a week ago, she said, and the Edwards campaign has made a late push.
Last week, Flores made news for telling a Dallas television station that he was open to the idea of raising the Social Security retirement age -- and then saying later that he misspoke because of a headache. The Edwards campaign jumped on the statement and has warned voters that Flores wants to privatize Social Security -- a suggestion that Flores has called a lie.
The poll shows Flores leading 51 percent to 42 percent among voters over the age of 55 at the time the questions were asked.
Despite the seemingly uphill battle, Democrats haven't let up on their defense of Edwards' seat. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported to the Federal Election Commission on Tuesday that it has bought about $569,000 worth of last-minute advertising opposing Flores.
The Republican Party had planned to spend about $75,000 on advertising in the race but redirected that money to other races earlier this week.
The Hill poll was part of a larger project to survey competitive races across the country. The newspaper predicted Republicans would see "a blowout election win that seems certain to seize more than enough seats to knock out the Democrats and take control of the House."
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