An economist likened the national recession and its effect on Texas to a medical emergency on Wednesday.
"We've had the heart go through cardiac arrest, and then suddenly the blood stops pumping and the rest of the body is immediately impacted," Jim Gaines, a research economist at the Texas Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, told a crowd of elected officials, business leaders and community members at the Bryan-College Station Chamber of Commerce 2010 Economic Outlook Conference.
"We're faced with an economy we've stabilized," he said. "We've stopped the heart attack, but the patient is still in the hospital."
Gaines said the state was late entering the recession and will likely be behind most of the nation in coming out of it. Job losses appear to have come to a halt, he said, but it's unclear whether new jobs will be created.
One out of six people are still either unemployed or underemployed, he said, and businesses don't feel as if they have the financial resources to expand.
Over the next year, Gaines said, Texas can expect a flat housing market until the economy picks up and the banking system stabilizes.
"The new up is flat," he said about economic trends.
The conference's keynote speaker, state Commissioner of Agriculture Todd Staples, said Texas is doing better than much of the rest of the nation. He attributed it to three things: relatively low taxes with no state income tax, an honorable courts system and a predictable regulatory environment.
He said the nation is at a critical point in history, and an expected population boom could strain state resources. The biggest challenge, he said, will be ensuring that Texas has enough water for the 40 million people expected to be in the state by 2050.
"Each of us, if we want a country and a state we can be proud of, we need to practice the principles of personal integrity," Staples said.
Agriculture will play a large part in the strength of the economy and the state, he said, adding one in seven Texans work in some form of agriculture. Staples said residents should work to ensure that we don't become dependent on foreign food.
State Sen. Steve Ogden said the state's finances are worse than expected, with sales tax figures 12 percent below last year.
Spurring growth in the private sector could offer relief, he said.
"That's the key to solving most of these economic issues the government is wrestling with," he said.
Ogden said things are improving in the gas and oil industry. Most people don't realize how important the industry is to Brazos County, he said, noting that there are more than 1,000 wells in the county, representing investments of several million dollars.
Despite the problems and tough decisions that lie ahead, Ogden said Texas was positioned to remain strong.
"I am reasonably optimistic we can manage these problems," he said.
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