Published Wednesday, November 25, 2009 6:05 AM

Fiscal outlook solid in B-CS

By MAGGIE KIELY
maggie.kiely@theeagle.com

One Texas economist sees the local recession coming to a slow and steady end.

Ray Perryman -- the president and CEO of The Perryman Group, an economic and financial analysis firm in Waco -- spoke to business leaders in Bryan-College Station at the Miramont Country Club on Tuesday as part of his annual economic outlook conference series.

During the presentation, Perryman addressed the national, state and local economies and projected improvement on all three levels.

"We're beginning to see things turn around," he said, "but we still have a ways to go."

On the state level, Perryman said, Texas is already in better shape than the rest of the country, and locally, Bryan-College Station has fared better economically than most Texas cities.

Perryman said he projected the twin cities' real gross product would increase from

$5.08 billion in 2009 to $6.29 billion in 2014. He said he expects retail sales to increase from $2.9 billion to $4.21 billion.

"In relative terms, we're doing less bad here than in other places," he said. "It's still going to be a while before we see jobs pick up."

The local unemployment rate was 6.5 percent in September compared to

4.2 percent in September 2008, and more than 3,500 jobs have been lost, according to an economic index report produced by Karr Ingham, an Amarillo economist.

Employment is the last sector of the economy to bounce back after a recession, Perryman said.

"People are still nervous about hiring anybody," he said. "You don't want to hire anyone until you make sure the recovery sustains."

Texas A&M University will be a crucial driving force in recovering from the recession, Perryman said. In addition to attracting more student residents who contribute to spending, the ongoing technology research at the university will boost the economy's industrial sector.

Perryman said while he still isn't satisfied with the current economic conditions, he's more content than he was last year at the conference.

"We've had a wake-up call," he said. "Spend money, but make sure you can afford to do it, and use common sense. I think this Christmas season, people will be spending."

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