For the first time since the start of the Great Recession, the Bryan-College Station area failed to create jobs late last year at the same pace as Texas and the rest of the country.
But experts said Wednesday that they still expect the area to outperform the state and nation in 2012.
"We are going to have a pretty good year -- not great, pretty good," said Jim Gaines, a research economist for the Texas A&M Real Estate Center.
The Brazos Valley has been relatively unscathed by the economic tumult of the past few years. Even with the disappointing recent numbers, the unemployment rate remained below 6 percent -- compared to 8.5 percent nationally and 7.2 in Texas.
That is largely because the area is dominated by Texas A&M and its seemingly safe government jobs. But as tax revenue stagnated during the recession, government agencies were forced to reduce staff this year. In all, Bryan-College Station lost about 3,000 state jobs, and saw both cities' municipal governments and school districts suffer through layoffs. A&M alone eliminated about 1,000 jobs, including some student worker positions.
About 450 local business leaders gathered at the College Station Hilton to discuss the area's economic future Wednesday. The mood was grim. When one speaker asked whether anyone thought the Great Recession had ended, no one raised a hand. And many business owners expressed worry about the future based on government cuts and the possibility of the Texas A&M football team playing a season outside of College Station.
But Gaines said the Brazos Valley is better situated than many communities. The governments' budgets have begun to stabilize, and home sales may increase by 2 to 5 percent, he said. That means Bryan-College Station can see the light at the end of the tunnel, he said.
"The rest of the country, that light is just a flickering candle," he said.
The United States faces uncertainty with a possible recession brewing in Europe and a presidential election at home. But Bryan-College Station should be isolated from those concerns, he said.
That is largely because of Texas A&M. Even with staff reductions, the university estimated that its overall economic impact increased slightly last year to $3.76 billion. The number of students rose by 732 and the university spent $263.6 million on construction.
"Even though we've had to adjust to decreased state support due to economic conditions throughout the state and nation, we have managed to keep Texas A&M moving forward, and we are pleased to be able to continue to contribute in a positive manner to [the] Bryan-College Station community that we proudly call home," A&M President R. Bowen Loftin said.
By 2013, local residents may not yet feel like the economy has returned to pre-recession levels, Gaines said. But they may feel like they are on their way, he added.
"Maybe when we look back five years from now we will say 2012 was the beginning of the beginning of the recovery," he said.
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