It's no secret that last year was rough for the local economy, but some experts say improvement likely will hit as early as mid-summer.
The Bryan-College Station economic index decreased during each month of 2009 and dropped from 116.9 in November to 115.2 percent in December, according to Karr Ingham, an Amarillo-based economist who compiles an economic index report.
The index started January 2000 with a baseline measure of 100 and reached its highest in December 2008, at 127.4.
Ingham's study -- which is conducted through a partnership between Commerce National Bank and The Eagle -- showed consumer activity was down significantly in 2009 as the local economy lost a considerable number of jobs and the unemployment rate remained elevated through year-end.
"I'm glad to have 2009 behind us, and I'm looking for a positive 2010," said Glen Davis, who recently was promoted to regional president of Commerce National Bank.
Davis said he predicted the index would begin picking up in mid-to-late 2010.
Before things can improve, he said, sales need to increase and the unemployment rate needs to decrease.
According to the report, spending declined 17 percent when comparing 2009 to 2008, and sales dropped 7 percent compared to the prior year.
The unemployment rate was 5.9 percent in December, a negative difference of 3.7 percent compared to December 2008, according to the report. The only major employment sector to add jobs in 2009 was health care. Government, Ingham said, was the big loser, dropping 1,800 of the net 3,600 jobs lost.
"I still think there is an overall lack of consumer confidence in the market and the economy," Davis said. "The bottom line is we're going to have to see improvement in consumer spending and hiring."
Those two sectors suffered greater rates of decline at the end of the year rather than the beginning, Ingham said, adding that flagging tax receipts to the state continue to raise concerns about funding levels for the state's universities in the near future.
"These trends certainly lead to the conclusion that the 2010 turnaround may not be just right around the corner," he said.
Ingham said the latest report likely will be revised in the coming months because employment data will be revised and released from the state, while sales tax numbers are released on a two-month delay from the time taxable purchases are made.
The report shows that the auto sales sector declined by 17 percent for the year, in what Ingham described as an "absolutely dismal year for the industry and its manufacturers and dealers."
Looking on the bright side, Davis pointed out a positive difference of 12.7 percent in the number of home sales when comparing 4th quarter year-over-year.
"You couple that with the average home sale price remaining relatively flat throughout the year and that's certainly positive," he said.
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