ROUND ROCK -- Even in the heftiest Republican state, where a governor named George W. Bush once led his party to unwavering dominance, Texas Democrats are looking at a change-hungry electorate -- and they like what they see.
Though polls show that Texas voters firmly back Republican presidential nominee John McCain, state Democrats have set their sights on the Texas Legislature.
There are too many close races to predict which party will end up with a majority, but old Bush allies and GOP newcomers alike now find themselves in surprisingly tight House and Senate races, giving Democrats their best chance in a decade to make big gains and perhaps even reclaim the gavel from powerful Republican House Speaker Tom Craddick of Midland.
"The only question here is how bad Republicans are going to hurt," said Democratic strategist Harold Cook. "George Bush has fouled the entire nest, and the voters are really starting to notice -- even in Texas."
Republicans acknowledge a tough environment in Texas and the nation, but they aren't conceding anything. Some -- such as party strategist Eric Bearse -- predict that the GOP will actually pick up House seats.
"Republicans should pick up two to four seats in part because [Democratic presidential candidate Barack] Obama is not performing very well in Texas and also in part because Democrats in the last election got all the low-hanging fruit and even a little bit more," Bearse said. "This time, things will swing back in a couple of the districts that are truly Republican districts."
But Democrats say Texans are accustomed to ticket-splitting -- meaning they'll support McCain for president but pick a local Democrat for the state House. In one Panhandle House district, internal polls showed the Democratic House nominee running nearly 50 points ahead of Obama.
Democrats are running strong in areas that seemed unthinkable even a few months ago, endangering incumbents such as Craddick and 19-year House veteran Rep. Tony Goolsby of Dallas. Sen. Kim Brimer, a Fort Worth Republican once close to Bush, is struggling to hang on, too.
In Round Rock, a string of suburban shopping centers and neighborhoods of cookie-cutter homes that has long been considered a Republican stronghold, GOP Rep. Mike Krusee barely broke 50 percent two years ago and has decided not to seek re-election.
It's a GOP district, but with mere days left before the Nov. 4 election, Democrats were confidently predicting an upset victory.
The race between Democrat Diana Maldonado and Republican Bryan Daniel has attracted attention from party activists and lobbyists. Many had been holding back until a clear leader emerged, but that hasn't happened. Voters who were undecided a week ago now say they've made up their minds, and internal polls shared with The Associated Press give Maldonado a slight edge.
Similar scenarios are playing out in enough districts to make Republicans nervous.
In rapidly growing North Texas, Democrats are waging well-funded campaigns. Rep. Bill Zedler, another Craddick ally, is having to answer for several pocketbook votes, including a failed property tax-relief proposal that Democratic challenger Chris Turner is now using against him. Goolsby is facing similar criticisms from Democrat Carol Kent.
Another potential surprise for Republicans lies in a Houston-area district thick with petrochemical plants and blue-collar workers who once considered former Republican U.S. House leader Tom DeLay a hero. Popular incumbent Rep. Robert Talton, R-Pasadena, has retired, leaving a possible opening for Democrat Joel Redmond, son of a well-known Baptist preacher.
Talton, remaining neutral, said a liberal Democrat could never win the conservative seat but called Redmond a "moderate to conservative Democrat" with a real chance of victory over Republican Ken Legler, owner of a Houston-area industrial company.
Republicans now have a 79-71 majority in the House, so Democrats would need a net gain of five seats to take over. They see Maldonado, Kent, Turner and Redmond as their best pickup opportunities.
A four-seat gain would leave the House at a 75-75 tie, potentially sparking leadership fights and policy gridlock in the Legislature.
Republicans control all statewide offices and both chambers of the Legislature, so winning back the speaker's post or any major state office would be a major victory. Despite Democrats' optimism, this won't be easy.
They must not only knock off incumbent Republicans on their home turf. They've also got to hang on to the handful of blue seats that are close to turning red.
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