LUBBOCK -- Record yields in the nation's top-producing state could bring Texas cotton growers their second-largest crop, U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates released Friday show.

The forecast for 8.1 million bales falls just short of the record in 2005 of 8.5 million bales. Producers were projected to harvest 828 pounds per acre, surpassing the record by more than 100 pounds per acre.

The state's estimate is up 7.8 percent from last month's 7.5 million bales.

Record yields were also projected for Louisiana, New Mexico and Oklahoma, as November's U.S. estimates rose 4 percent from October to 18.9 million bales, the agency's report shows.

Most of Texas' production, 43 percent of the nation's projected harvest, comes from the South Plains, which is enjoying "ideal" harvest conditions, said Shawn Wade, spokesman for the Plains Cotton Growers.

Dry conditions the past month or so have allowed South Plains producers to strip cotton bolls off the plant more quickly.

"We're just seeing the difference that weather can make on this crop," said Wade, whose group serves 41 counties in the world's largest growing patch. "Quality is just off-the-charts good. There's nothing bad about this crop."

Last month the 41-county estimate showed production of 4.9 million bales. That projection jumped to 5.3 million bales this month; the region's record, like the state's, came in 2005 when 5.6 million bales were harvested.

If November's numbers pan out, the production on the South Plains will come from 250,000 fewer acres, Wade said. High yields are making up for the acreage drop.

The nation's projection, 13 percent fewer bales than last year's 21.6 million 480-pound bales, comes off about 29 percent fewer planted acres, National Cotton Council spokesman Gary Adams said.

If realized, the average yield across the nation, 859 pounds per acre, will be the largest on record. The record of 855 pounds per acre was set in 2004.

Texas' share of the U.S. crop is the largest dating to 1978, Adams said. In the past 29 years, the state's production has been 28 percent to 30 percent of the country's total, he said.

In late summer South Plains producers' cotton fields were lagging. They needed above-normal temperatures to help bolls mature.

"And apparently that's what happened," Adams said. "For this point in the season [Texas' estimate] was a big revision."

Cotton is grown across the nation's Southern tier from Virginia and the Carolinas to California. And some of those states' estimates were down because of drought and ill-timed hot temperatures.

Crops in Florida suffered, but Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas were hit the hardest. Tennessee's production looked good until August, when hot and dry conditions hit, causing a yield drop from 756 pounds per acre last month to 601 pounds per acre in November's report, Adams said.

In Texas, the 8.1-million-bale estimate for the state's No. 1 row crop translates into an economic impact of $11.2 billion. The Lubbock area would feel about $4.8 billion of that.

Cotton gins are the next stop for the fluffy fiber. Last weekend, some gins told producers it would be the first of the year before their cotton got handled.

"We're going to be ginning for a while," Wade said. "We might get to March. I don't know that we'll get to April."

In 2005, gins on the South Plains didn't finish processing the record harvest until late March.

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