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AUSTIN -- When the state comptroller estimates the state's revenue next week, lawmakers will get their first glimpse of how much the national recession has hit Texas.
The biennial announcement from Comptroller Susan Combs -- coming as the Legislature convenes for its 140-day session -- will tell state budget writers how much money they have to spend on such things as public schools, courts and health care services for the 2010-11 spending cycle. And it will show for the first time if Texas shoppers have tightened their belts so much that they put a dent in sales tax revenue.
The state budget -- $167 billion for the current two-year period -- is the only legislation officials are legally required to pass.
Sen. Steve Ogden, R-Bryan, said national economic problems and plunging oil and gas prices could keep the state's budget from growing over the next two years.
"Until September, we were clicking along pretty well in Texas," Ogden said. "The long and short of it is we're not broke, not in a financial crisis, but we're not going to have a lot of money to spend."
Combs and Gov. Rick Perry, both Republicans, already have hinted that the national financial meltdown has begun to seep into the state economy, even though Texas so far has weathered it better than most states.
Sales tax receipts, which make up about 52 percent of the state budget, grew at a 12 percent rate two years ago, but that has slowed to a troubling 5 percent.
Perry wants state agencies to lower their budget requests and cut spending. Many agencies responded by cutting travel expenses for training and seminars.
State officials have estimated that Texas will have a surplus of about $11 billion, but Combs will confirm or change that number next week. But even that amount won't go far.
"It's going to be lean, we'll have to be efficient and do our best to come up with consensus for priorities in the budget," said Rep. Joe Straus, R-San Antonio, who will likely be elected House speaker.
Texas likely will have to pay up to $2 billion for its share of costs from Hurricane Ike, rapid growth in Medicaid costs and enrollment, lower oil prices that might mean less income in the state's Rainy Day Fund, slowed consumer spending and lower-than-projected revenues from the state's new business tax in the fund intended to pay for public schools.
